ELECTIONS”88 : ORANGE COUNTY : Survey Shows 3 Education Issues Ahead : Orange County Poll’s Data Boosts Hopes on Props. 78, 79 and 98

Although historically conservative about money issues, a majority of Orange County voters favor three statewide education funding issues on the Nov. 8 ballot, a UC Irvine polling expert said Thursday.

The measures drawing support, according to a countywide poll, are Propositions 78, 79 and 98. Propositions 78 and 79 are school-building bond issues, and Proposition 98 is a measure to require the state to dedicate a set percentage of its annual budget for elementary and secondary education each year.

Propositions 78 and 79 have been relatively non-controversial, but Proposition 98 has divided the education community and drawn criticism. State Sen. Marian Bergeson (R-Newport Beach), who has specialized in education issues in the Legislature, has opposed Proposition 98 because, she said, “it would cause great cuts in the University of California and California State University system budgets.”

Mark Baldassare, a UCI social ecology professor who conducts the Orange County Annual Survey, released part of the 1988 poll Thursday. The overall 1988 Orange County Annual Survey will not be made public until early December.

Baldassare’s survey polled 1,003 adult residents by phone in from Sept. 6 to 22. A special segment of this year’s poll asked for voters’ feelings about the three propositions.

Baldassare said the survey found all three initiatives drawing strong support.

Polled Before Mailers Arrived

“The outlook is excellent for all three propositions (in Orange County) at this point,” he said. “But it’s important to keep in mind that both polls were conducted in September, before people started receiving campaign information for or against the measures. Only time will tell how they will actually fare in November.”

The survey found that 55% of those polled favor Proposition 78, with 30% opposed and 15% with no opinion. Proposition 78, which has been endorsed by virtually all officials in county higher education, calls for a $600-million bond issue for building projects for state community colleges and universities.

Proposition 79 is an $800-million bond issue for building new elementary and high schools. The measure drew 50% support of those polled in the county, with 38% opposed and 12% with no opinion. Baldassare noted that Proposition 79 statewide has a much higher level of support--69% in the last known poll.

Proposition 98 calls for an immediate dedication of a set percentage of the state budget for elementary schools, high schools and community colleges. It does not include the UC or California State University systems in the earmarked money. Baldassare said that while statewide, Proposition 98 has 58% voter approval so far, the Orange County poll showed it had 68% in favor and 22% opposed, with 10% having no opinion.

Bergeson, a member of the Senate Education Committee and author of many pro-education bills over the years, said Thursday that she does not believe county voters “clearly understand the impact” of Proposition 98.

She said if Proposition 98 passes Nov. 8, the state this fiscal year will immediately have to revise its existing budget.

“We’ll have to cut from a minimum of $215 million to up to $796 million out of this year’s budget,” Bergeson said. “Most people believe it will be the higher figure. Many programs will be hurt, but I think the biggest losers will be the University of California and the California State University, because it’s their budgets that will probably be cut back most sharply.”

Bergeson said she strongly supports the central goal of Proposition 98, which she said is to get stable funding for education. But she said, “I am not supporting the proposition because it would adversely affect so many other programs.”

Bergeson said she believes that other ways can be found to help stabilize money for school systems.

Marc Grossman, spokesman for the School Funding Initiative headquarters, which is the statewide support group for Proposition 98, disagreed with Bergeson.

Grossman said Bergeson “is using faulty analysis” and added that the measure is “not going to have that kind of effect.”

Grossman said he was “elated” to learn that Proposition 98 is drawing such strong voter support in Orange County.

“Traditionally, Orange County is one of the places where issues like this might have trouble,” Grossman said. “This is great news that it’s doing so well in that county. If we can do that well in Orange County, can you imagine how well we’ll be doing throughout the state?”