The Times Poll : Nader’s Proposal Is Sole Insurance Plan Favored

California voters, who believe emphatically that the state’s traditional initiative process “has gotten out of control,” are rejecting all of the insurance proposals on the Nov. 8 ballot except for consumer advocate Ralph Nader’s, The Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

The voters also favor initiatives to raise the cigarette tax by 25 cents a pack and to establish a minimum, guaranteed level of state funding for public schools.

But they oppose a measure that would eliminate anonymous testing for AIDS and require doctors to report to health authorities the names of patients infected with the deadly virus.

With only about two weeks remaining before Election Day, many voters have still not focused their attention on the complex insurance, education and AIDS measures. There seems to be less confusion about the proposed tobacco tax.

“Many voters told us they haven’t yet heard enough about the insurance initiatives, and that makes for a volatile situation,” Times Poll Director I.A. Lewis said. “I suspect many of them will just pass up some propositions, or, if they do vote, they’ll vote ‘no,’ feeling that’s safest.”

For four days ending Sunday, The Times Poll conducted telephone interviews with 1,376 Californians considered likely to vote Nov. 8. The margin of error is four percentage points in either direction.

The likely voters were asked their opinions concerning eight of the most controversial measures on the state ballot. Queried how they would vote if the election were held today, these were the responses, in numerical order of the propositions:

Proposition 98, school funds: yes 54%, no 31%, undecided 15%.

Proposition 99, tobacco tax: yes 58%, no 36%, undecided 6%.

Proposition 100, an insurance measure sponsored by trial lawyers: yes 36%, no 47%, undecided 17%.

Sponsored Measure

Proposition 101, an insurance measure sponsored by Assemblyman Richard Polanco (D-Los Angeles) and insurance executive Harry Miller: yes 11%, no 70%, undecided 19%.

Proposition 102, AIDS: yes 36%, no 51%, undecided 13%.

Proposition 103, the insurance measure sponsored by Nader: yes 50%, no 34%, undecided 16%.

Proposition 104, a “no-fault” insurance measure sponsored by the insurance industry: yes 28%, no 55%, undecided 17%.

Proposition 106, a proposal sponsored by the insurance industry to restrict trial lawyers’ contingency fees: yes 37%, no 45%, undecided 18%.

In all, California voters will face 29 propositions on the crowded state ballot, a near record. Of these, 12 got there by way of the signature-collecting initiative process, established 77 years ago by political reformer Hiram Johnson “to make every man his own Legislature.”

But three-fourths of those interviewed said that “the initiative process has gotten out of control,” and nearly half “strongly” agreed with that statement.

They blamed, first of all, the Legislature for “failing to do its job of making the laws.” Secondly, they faulted special interests that use the initiative process “to get around the Legislature.” Beyond that, they said, “it’s too easy to qualify” an initiative for the ballot.

Public Cynicism

The public’s cynicism about lawyers and insurance companies--the special interests spending many millions of dollars to battle each other over the insurance proposals--was illustrated when voters were asked which of these groups they trust most. The most prevalent response was “neither.”

Among those who did trust one over the other, the lawyers and insurers fared about equally. Democrats trusted lawyers more, and Republicans put more faith in insurance companies.

So far, The Times survey showed, the only successful campaign among the insurance propositions is consumer advocate Nader’s relatively low-budget effort for Proposition 103. The sweeping measure, among other things, would immediately roll back all insurance rates by 20%.

A large part of Proposition 103’s appeal, it seems, is Nader himself. The voters’ impression of Nader is a highly positive 70% favorable, 17% unfavorable and 13% not sure. Even Republicans, aligned with a big business constituency that Nader frequently opposes, rate the consumer advocate 60% favorable, 28% unfavorable. Democrats rate him an extremely high 80% favorable and 8% unfavorable.

The margin of support for Proposition 103 is being provided by Democrats (2 to 1) and independents (5 to 3). Republicans are split.

Latinos and blacks especially favor Nader’s proposal.

Rate Reductions

By region, Proposition 103 is supported overwhelmingly in Los Angeles County (more than 2 to 1), but voters in Northern California outside of the San Francisco Bay Area are split--perhaps persuaded by opponents’ ads that claim two-thirds of the state’s motorists would wind up paying for the rate reductions of Los Angeles drivers.

This argument also is being made by opponents of Proposition 100, the trial lawyers’ measure, that would reduce auto rates by 20% for “good drivers.” Predictably, the proposal is receiving its stiffest opposition in Northern California outside of the Bay Area. The measure is faring best in Southern California outside of Los Angeles, where voters are divided.

Proposition 104, the insurance industry’s no-fault proposal, is opposed overwhelmingly by Democrats (5 to 2) and also by Republicans (3 to 2). Geographically, its opposition is broad-based across the entire state.

Proposition 106, to limit trial lawyers’ fees, is opposed by Democrats (4 to 3), and so far, they are the swing vote. Republicans and independents are split.

But voters obviously are confused about the vigorously competing insurance initiatives, as well as the education and AIDS proposals. This was illustrated when Times interviewers initially asked people for their general impressions of the measures, offering only very brief descriptions. (When people subsequently were asked how they would vote, interviewers read more detailed explanations of the proposals.)

Some Puzzled

Initially, half the voters said they had not heard enough about Propositions 98 (education) and 101 (insurance) to have formed impressions. Roughly four in 10 were also unfamiliar with Propositions 100, 103 and 106. One-third were puzzled about Proposition 102 (AIDS), and one-fourth about Proposition 104. However, only one in seven believed they did not know enough about Proposition 99 (tobacco tax) to have an opinion.

The cigarette tax, which would be used to finance health care for uninsured indigents, anti-smoking education in schools, research into tobacco-related diseases and the improvement of public parks, is being backed across the board by Democrats, Republicans and independents alike. Especially supportive are San Francisco Bay Area residents, affluent voters and professional people--all by more than 2 to 1.

But black voters are opposed. They traditionally have been skeptical of increases in excise taxes, which are regressive and tend to hurt poor people the most. In addition, supporters of Proposition 99 say the tobacco industry has been particularly targeting its opposition ads at minority communities.

As a class, skilled or semi-skilled laborers are split over the cigarette tax.

Proposition 102, the AIDS initiative sponsored by Rep. William Dannemeyer (R-Fullerton), is particularly opposed in the San Francisco Bay Area (nearly 2 to 1).

Division Found

Affluent voters oppose the measure (5 to 3) and so do the middle-class (5 to 4), but low-income people are more divided.

Proposition 98, sponsored by the California Teachers Assn. and state Supt. of Public Instruction Bill Honig, is heavily supported by Democrats and independents (more than 2 to 1), but also Republicans (4 to 3). People of all income levels back it. It is supported across the state, particularly in Los Angeles County (2 to 1).