Bubbles Will Be Bursting

When the NCAA selection committee huddles to pick the 64-team tournament field in a couple of weeks, it will have as difficult an assignment as it has had in several years.

There were some years when the committee scraped to find enough worthy teams. This year, there will be more teams available than spots to put them in.

The Southeastern, Big East and Big 12 conferences could each get seven invitations. The Big Ten could get six slots. The Atlantic Coast Conference expects five, and Conference USA, the Pacific 10 and Atlantic 10 are counting on at least four berths each.

Then there are all those automatic bids that go to conference tournament winners. That means bad news for bubble teams. In a season noted for parity among the middle-of-the-pack teams, there could be 15 or fewer spots open on March 14, selection day.

Here are some teams that will make things tough for the committee if they don’t get their conferences’ automatic bids.

* Maryland (15-11, 7-8). The Terrapins are fifth in the ACC and could slide in on the conference’s reputation if they reach 17 wins. But Maryland has not beaten a ranked team and doesn’t have a great RPI (51). The Terrapins probably need a couple of big wins in the ACC tournament.

* Idaho (19-5, 11-4). The Vandals pinned the only Big West Conference loss on UC Santa Barbara so far and have made a big turnaround from last year’s 10-18 team. But they don’t have any notable nonconference victories and suffered bad Big West losses to Fullerton and Long Beach.

* Marquette (18-8, 8-5) and Memphis (18-8, 8-5). They are tied for fifth in Conference USA. Each needs a deep run in the conference tournament.

* Nevada Las Vegas (18-5, 7-3). The Lady Rebels have the second-most victories among Mountain West Conference teams but are only third in conference play and probably have to win the conference tournament to get in.

* Mississippi (16-11, 6-6). These Rebels might be in good shape, despite a .500 SEC record, thanks to quality wins over Nebraska, Florida and No. 16 Georgia. A victory over No. 14 LSU or Arkansas this week would strengthen their case.

* Rutgers (16-9, 8-5). The Lady Knights have a total bubble package. Their RPI ranking (27) is good and so is their strength of schedule (7). They have several quality wins, including Texas Christian and Virginia Tech. But they are seventh in the conference, and it might depend on how many Big East teams go.

* Loyola Marymount (20-5, 11-1). The Lions won their first regular-season West Coast Conference title. But usually only one team from the WCC reaches the NCAA tournament, meaning LMU can’t stumble in the conference tournament.

* UCLA (15-11, 10-7). The Bruins have quality wins over Ohio State and Arizona. And UCLA has played well lately, having won six of its last seven. But the Bruins are still fifth in the Pac-10 and might need to reach the conference tournament title game.

* Rice (16-7, 13-1). The Owls are tied with Louisiana Tech for first in the Western Athletic Conference, and they beat the Lady Techsters. But that’s Rice’s only notable victory. It too has to win its conference tournament.