The Tony Awards

British elections have everything U.S. elections don’t: a rollicking monthlong campaign sprint, contested parliamentary districts and accurate exit polls. Last week’s vote returned Prime Minister Tony Blair and his Labor Party to power for a historic third term but with a shrunken majority after a bruising public debate over Blair’s support for the war in Iraq. It was also a referendum on the chattering classes’ ability to peer into the clouded political future of America’s closest foreign ally. Here’s how some pundits performed.

37% for the center-left Labor Party, 33% for the Conservatives, and 22% for the antiwar Liberal Democrats

--Results of May 5 BBC exit poll (Actual tally: 35%, 32%, 22%)

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“We are going to finish with Blair once and for all. It will be quite easy. There is no doubt about that.”

--Maurice Saatchi, Conservative Party joint chairman

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“What I think we are seeing is support for the Conservatives disappearing like snow off a dike, support for us coming up and Labor very badly rattled by the Lib Dem challenge in the closing stages.”

--Charles Kennedy, Liberal Democrat leader

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“It may well be an omen.... and I’m confident [Conservatives] will see the same result.”

--Michael Howard, Conservative leader and fan of the Liverpool soccer team, referring to the team’s upset victory on May 3

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“[The election] will be a moment for Labor to deal with something for which the party’s current generation may be ill-equipped: the experience of defeat.”

--Martin Kettle, columnist for the left-leaning Guardian

newspaper

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“This election has the feel of 1992 about it, when the polls were proved wrong and the Conservatives emerged triumphant.”

--Chris Moncrieff, veteran journalist and political analyst

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“Labor will win the election with a reduced majority in the House of Commons.”

--Prediction of six psychics on Your Destiny, a cable TV show

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103-seat majority for Labor

--The final preelection prediction of UK-Elect, an election forecast service that predicted Labor’s 2001 victory margin to within two seats. (Labor’s majority in last week’s election was about 65 seats.)

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“Something mighty strange is about to happen.... The public believe in large numbers that Tony Blair is a liar.... And yet the

pollsters tell us that this same electorate is about to vote Labor back.”

--Melanie Phillips, columnist for the conservative Daily Mail

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-- Allison Hoffman