California’s housing crisis is spreading to neighboring states — and could sway their voters

Good morning. It’s Wednesday, April 10. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

• A housing crisis has hit the battleground states of Nevada and Arizona (courtesy, in part, to an influx of Californians), and it’s a major issue for voters.
• An Arizona Supreme Court decision could end access to abortion in the state.
• The music industry has a Plan B in case the U.S. bans TikTok.
• And here’s today’s e-newspaper.

California’s housing crisis is spreading to its neighbors, with nationwide implications

On Monday, we highlighted the continuing (though slowing) California exodus. Tens of thousands of residents are leaving the Golden State, many seeking relief from its high cost of living, especially housing.

But where are all those people going? In the last two years, the largest share headed to Texas, according to state-to-state migration estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. But more than 150,00 other Californians moved to the neighboring states of Arizona and Nevada in that period.

Those ex-Californians made up by far the largest share of new arrivals to both states, Census Bureau data show. More than 143,000 Californians moved to Arizona in 2021 and 2022. And over 111,000 people traded the Golden State for the Silver State (Nevada) during that time.

As Times reporter Benjamin Oreskes explained this week, residents of Arizona and Nevada have been experiencing a California-like crisis: a low supply of housing alongside high demand — a combination that’s driving up prices and interest rates.

Data compiled by Zillow show home sale prices in Nevada’s Clark County (home to Las Vegas) have jumped by 50% since 2016, to about $414,000. And Zillow found that rents increased almost 70% in that time. It’s a similar story in Arizona, where home prices and interest rates have also ballooned. But renters face a slightly rosier outlook now in the Grand Canyon State, where CNBC reports that rents in many metro regions have gone down.

The housing crunch is linked in part to the influx of Californians, and the three states’ related crises could have broader implications for this year’s national elections, Ben reported.

“As President Biden and Donald Trump prepare to face off once again in November, the hope of owning a home is all but dead — or at least on life support — for many middle-class voters in Nevada and Arizona, battleground states,” he wrote. “Biden’s focus on the subject during a campaign swing last month is a reflection of how profound the crisis is for voters, political observers say.”

Perceptions of the nation’s economic health is expected to be a key factor in whom the electorate votes to empower this November. While much has been written lately about voters going with vibes rather than data, the realities of the housing market hit people where they live — or, perhaps more accurately, where they’d like to live but can’t afford. That could prove to be a defining issue for many voters in roughly seven months.

Ben wrote:

So how have the Trump and Biden campaigns responded to the West’s growing housing crisis?

Among the ideas President Biden’s administration is pursuing: a $10,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers, a $20-billion competitive grant fund to boost housing stocks, and local incentives to relax zoning restrictions so homes can be built more quickly.

And Trump? The former president has been light on the details of how he’d help get home prices down. His campaign did not respond to The Times’ requests for comment. But, Ben noted, Trump “has mused about getting rid of the Fair Housing Act, which protects minorities from discrimination in the purchase or renting of housing.”

You can read more of Ben Oreskes’ reporting in this subscriber exclusive story (you’re a subscriber, right?).

Today’s top stories

Women wait to make appointments at Camelback Family Planning in Phoenix, which continued to perform surgical abortions in 2022 after Roe vs. Wade was overturned.

(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times )

Abortion access and swing states

• An Arizona Supreme Court decision could virtually end all abortions in the state, setting up the swing state for a November showdown on the issue.
• Former President Trump supports leaving it up to states to determine abortion access. That’s where it gets complicated.
• “Even Trump knows Republicans have gone too far on abortion,” writes columnist Anita Chabria.
• “Trump hoped to sidestep the abortion issue. The Arizona Supreme Court just showed why he can’t,” columnist Mark Z. Barabak writes.

LAPD and crime

• A thief stole William Woods’ identity, but nobody believed him. He spent nearly two years locked up as a suspect in the crime against himself.
• An infant was left to die on the 405. Investigations found the baby was one of three dead in a case of shocking family violence.

Music and Coachella

• The U.S. might ban TikTok. Record labels are cutting ties. What’s music’s Plan B?
• The House of Representatives voted in favor of a bill banning TikTok in the U.S. in mid-March. Here’s what you should know.
• Here’s everything you should know about Coachella 2024.

The state of the box office

• Has the cinema business recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic and two overlapping Hollywood strikes? Theater owners and studios make the case at CinemaCon that movies are back.
• The movie theater industry made a plea for more films, while expressing concerns about the rise of illegal streaming and digital piracy.
• The 2024 box office faces an uncertain future after the Oscars marked a last hurrah for ‘Barbenheimer.’

More big stories

• Ramadan is ending this week. How communities in L.A. County decided when to celebrate.
• 99 Cents Only was an L.A. icon. Inside the fall of the popular chain.
• Can California curb retail theft without changing Prop. 47? Assembly Democrats unveil their plan.
• The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California will hike water rates and taxes to cover rising costs and conservation efforts.
• Trump is about to go on trial in New York. Here’s what to expect.
• Federal EPA limits toxic ‘forever chemicals’ in drinking water.
• And the heat keeps coming: The global temperature record was broken for the 10th month in a row in March.
• A California candidate will be on the ballot twice in November. What if he wins both races?
• An audit by the California State Auditor’s Office found that California is failing to track the effectiveness of billions spent on homelessness.
• The Los Angeles County Federation of Labor joined unions calling for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip following pressure from its members and staff.

Get unlimited access to the Los Angeles Times. Subscribe here.

Commentary and opinions

• Robin Abcarian: California workers, does your boss bug you after hours and on weekends? This bill is for you.
• Carla Hall: There are so many potholes in L.A. — and not enough people to fix them.
• Tony Barboza: It’s way too hard to install this climate-friendly appliance: heat pumps.
• Op-ed: How tenant unions are finding power in numbers to fight L.A.’s housing crisis.

Today’s powerful reads

Michael Lockshin, a Russian American director, recently adapted the classic Russian novel “The Master and Margarita” for the screen.

This L.A. director made a film in Russia. The Kremlin wasn’t happy. Then came the death threats. Michael Lockshin’s adaptation of a beloved Russian book — “The Master and Margarita” — has drawn huge crowds, putting him at odds with Putin’s Kremlin.

More great reads

• Chris Perfetti, who plays the liberal white do-gooder teacher Jacob in the sitcom “Abbot Elementary,” finds that “tragic circumstances” can be comedy gold.
• A California border town’s first transgender mayor faces recall. Is gender the reason?
  

How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to [email protected].

For your downtime

Victoria Monet is one of several performers scheduled to hit the Coachella stage this weekend.

(Justin J Wee / For The Times)

Going out

• 🎡 Going to Coachella this weekend? Here are the 18 performances you need to see.

Staying in

• 📖 Read Joan Nathan’s new memoir, “My Life in Recipes: Food, Family, and Memories,” which reveals why she is more than a Jewish cookbook writer.
• 🧑‍🍳 Make your own panes con pollo, the Salvadoran version of a chicken sandwich.
• ✏️ Get our free daily crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and arcade games.

And finally ... a powerful photo

Show us your favorite place in California! We’re running low on submissions. Send us photos that scream “California,” and we may feature them in an upcoming edition of Essential California.

As night falls in Old Jerusalem, Muslim youth break their Ramadan fast with a picnic on a rooftop, with views of the Dome of the Rock in the Al Aqsa Mosque compound.

(Marcus Yam / Los Angeles Times)

Today’s powerful photo is from Times photojournalist Marcus Yam, showing Jerusalem’s Old City after dusk as Palestinian Muslims end their Ramadan fast with a somber meal on a rooftop, skipping festivities out of sympathy for Gazans suffering amid the Israel-Hamas war.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Defne Karabatur, fellow
Christian Orozco, assistant editor
Stephanie Chavez, deputy metro editor
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

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