USC to the Rose Bowl? Examining how Colorado’s loss affects Trojans’ chances

In the waning seconds of USC’s 21-17 win over Colorado earlier this season, receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster made a crucial third-down reception and had nothing ahead of him but the end zone. He could’ve walked in for the score. Instead, he took a knee at the 14-yard line.

It was the right decision, effectively ending the game. Afterward Coach Clay Helton gushed, “To get that first down, understand where the game was and to get down to end it I thought was tremendous.”

It also might end up hurting USC’s Rose Bowl chances, if the College Football Playoff committee decides to look at margin of victory.

Colorado’s 41-10 loss to Washington in the Pac-12 championship game Friday presented the committee with a dilemma. Assuming it sends Washington to the four-team playoff, the Rose Bowl will select the higher ranked team between Colorado and USC when the rankings are revealed on Sunday.

Will the committee choose the head-to-head winner? Or the South Division champion?

USC (9-3), ranked No. 11 in last week’s rankings, needs to move three spots to leap No. 8 Colorado (10-3). The decision is complex, with little precedent and murky criteria. Even style points in USC’s head-to-head win could matter.

The case for USC: Its eight-game winning streak trails only Alabama and Western Michigan. It has two top-10 wins. The Trojans had the sixth-toughest schedule in the country, and its three losses all came against top-25 teams, including No. 1 Alabama. USC won the head-to-head matchup with Colorado despite four turnovers, leads Colorado in most computer rankings and convincingly defeated Washington on the road.

The case for Colorado: Its third loss only came because it bested USC for the conference title. Besides its loss to the Trojans, its two defeats came against top-five teams, Washington and Michigan. The Buffaloes defeated the two Pac-12 teams that USC couldn’t, Stanford and Utah, and its loss to USC was on the road with a margin of victory that might look slimmer to the committee, thanks to Smith-Schuster’s knee.

The committee’s chairman, Kirby Hocutt, said after revealing last week’s rankings that, for the playoff, its mandate is to select “the four very best teams in college football.”

That logic will likely inform its down-ballot decisions too.

If the committee cannot decide between the two, “that’s when we go to the protocol and the metric, being conference championships, strength of schedules, head-to-head and outcomes against common opponents.”

USC would seem to hold the edge there, but Scott Jenkins, the chairman of the Rose Bowl Management Committee, isn’t convinced.

“Unless there is a huge blowout in one of those conference championship games, I don’t think the committee wants to hurt a team for playing in them,’’ Jenkins told The Times this week. “If Colorado loses, I’d be surprised if Colorado drops much, if at all. It would be a surprise to me if USC jumps Colorado.”

Looking at how the committee treated past championship-game losers could provide some insight. Here’s a look at such decisions:

2015

• Stanford defeats USC, 41-22. USC drops five spots. The Trojans (8-5) fall below Utah (9-3), a team USC defeated.
• Michigan State defeats Iowa, 16-13. Iowa drops one spot and the Hawkeyes (11-1) remain ahead of Ohio State (11-1), a team that hadn’t made the Big Ten title game. The teams did not play in the regular season.
• Alabama defeats Florida, 29-15. Florida drops one spot. The Gators (10-3) remain one spot ahead of Louisiana State (8-3), which won the head-to-head matchup.
• Clemson defeats North Carolina, 45-37. North Carolina (11-2) does not rise or drop.

2014

• Oregon defeats Arizona, 51-13. Arizona drops three spots. The Wildcats (10-3) remain ahead of UCLA (9-3), which won the head-to-head matchup.
• Ohio State defeats Wisconsin, 59-0. Wisconsin (10-3) moves down five spots.
• Alabama defeats Missouri, 42-13. Missouri does not rise or drop. The Tigers (10-3) do not pass Georgia (9-3), which won the head-to-head matchup and entered the championship weekend ranked two spots ahead of Missouri.
• Florida State defeats Georgia Tech, 37-35. Georgia Tech drops one spot. The Yellow Jackets (10-3) remain one spot ahead of Georgia (9-3), an out-of-conference team it defeated.

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