Top Democrats See Dukakis in Deep Trouble

WASHINGTON — Democratic presidential candidate Michael S. Dukakis is falling so far behind Vice President George Bush, in the view of some prominent Democrats, that they see Sunday’s debate with Bush as perhaps Dukakis’ last chance to breathe new life into his slumping campaign.

Although Democratic Party Chairman Paul G. Kirk Jr. insists that Dukakis’ chances will improve as he engages Bush on the issues, several leading Democrats, including three former party chairmen--John White, Robert S. Strauss and Charles T. Manatt--are known to feel that the Dukakis campaign is in deep trouble.

Slow to React

None of the former chairmen have said so publicly, but all have privately expressed concern that the Massachusetts governor has been too slow to react to Bush’s repeated attacks.

Morever, they are concerned that with only 48 days to go until the Nov. 8 election, Dukakis’ campaign depends too heavily on Massachusetts advisers, to the exclusion of Democrats elsewhere in the country who are experienced in presidential campaigns.

Manatt said that the Dukakis campaign “needs a whole lot of outreach to get a few dozen good people who want to help the campaign involved in the campaign. Nothing could be more important than getting that outreach. People are interested and interested in working full-time.”

California, said Manatt, who has homes in Los Angeles and Washington, is still “very much open,” and Dukakis has a chance of carrying the state if he can get his campaign back on track.

Recent polls have been bad news for Dukakis. A Media General-Associated Press poll taken Sept. 6-14 showed Bush with a whopping 56% to 39% lead among likely voters.

An ABC News-Washington Post poll released Tuesday reported that Dukakis is still unknown to many voters despite more than a year of campaigning. The survey, which gave Bush a 50%-to-46% lead over Dukakis, said 54% of the respondents thought they did not know enough about Dukakis. That compared with 70% who said they think the vice president is a known quantity.

The survey of 1,271 likely voters, begun a week ago and concluded Monday, also found that Bush was favored over Dukakis among voters who consider themselves independents.

Still Expressing Optimism

Publicly, Dukakis campaign advisers continue to express optimism. However, one Dukakis adviser conceded privately that the campaign had run into serious trouble.

“It’s not over,” he said, “but we’ve got our work cut out for us. You can’t take the pounding that Dukakis has taken from Bush for six weeks and let it go unanswered without suffering egregiously. I think the debates will be crucial.”

A former party official said he was not sure that even the debates could help the governor. “It may be too late,” he said. “I feel it in my bones that Dukakis is a goner.”

Kirk acknowledged during a breakfast session with the Times Washington Bureau that Bush’s attacks on Dukakis as a “liberal” had hurt the Massachusetts governor, who held a commanding lead in the polls shortly after his nomination at the Democratic National Convention in July.

But the Democratic chairman expressed optimism that Dukakis would bounce back as the campaign became focused more on issues than symbols and the governor took on Bush in the televised debate scheduled for Sunday in Winston-Salem, N.C.

“That’s what Michael Dukakis does best and that’s what I think people will respect--that he enjoys engaging on issues and making tough decisons,” Kirk said. “And all that will come through.”

Peripheral Roles

Democrats in other states have repeatedly voiced the complaint that the Dukakis campaign has excluded them and relied mostly on Massachusetts advisers. In fact, former Democratic chairmen White, Strauss and Manatt have played such peripheral roles in the campaign that Bush campaign officials asked each if he would be willing to head up a Democrats-for-Bush committee. All three declined.

Other leading Democrats in Georgia, Texas and California have offered to work in the campaign, only to be told they would be called if needed. Georgia Democrats have complained that Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn’s offers to campaign on defense issues and Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Tommy Irwin’s offers to campaign on farm issues have gone unanswered by the Dukakis campaign.

Called Close Adviser

Asked about these complaints, Kirk insisted: “Sam Nunn has been closely advising Gov. Dukakis on the defense issues. He was with him here at Georgetown last week when he spoke out on defense issues. . . . I talk to Bob Strauss, Chuck Manatt, John White regularly. The campaign does as well.”

One of the more serious recent complaints came from California. Democrats were stunned when Larry Lawrence, a wealthy San Diego businessman and former party official, was stiff-armed by the Dukakis campaign after chairing a San Diego fund-raiser last Friday that raised more than $1 million for the campaign.

Lawrence declined to comment on the incident, but sources familiar with it said Lawrence’s offer to campaign for Dukakis was met with a question: “What would you do?”

Lawrence, who has been involved in presidential politics for several decades and has traveled with every Democratic presidential nominee since John F. Kennedy, told friends he would leave Saturday for the Olympics in South Korea and would remain in the Far East until after the election.

Kirk emphasized that no Democratic candidates for federal, state and local offices around the country were running away from the ticket of Dukakis and his running mate, Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen.