GOP Legislators Seek New Strategy to Prepare for 2000 Elections

SACRAMENTO — Trounced in last November’s vote, Republicans in California’s Legislature are struggling to find a winning formula for the next election barely a year away.

Having seen Democrats gain five seats in the Assembly and two in the Senate, Republicans aren’t seriously talking about capturing a majority in either house. Instead, they are hoping for modest gains as they go back to the drawing board to make themselves more marketable to voters.

“Our goal isn’t necessarily to take back the majority, but it is to regain as many seats as we can,” said Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer (R-Newport Beach), a top lieutenant to Assembly GOP Leader Rod Pacheco of Riverside.

In the Senate, Republicans are equally hesitant to issue optimistic forecasts, saying at this early stage that there is virtually no way they can capture a majority in the 40-member upper house.

Flush with victory from last November, Democrats outnumber Republicans 25 to 15 in the Senate and 47 to 32 in the Assembly, with one vacancy in a strongly Democratic district.

With the March 2000 primary bearing down on them, Republicans have yet to devise a blueprint to pick up seats.

Much of the emerging Republican strategy seems to rely on Texas Gov. George W. Bush to run for president and mount an aggressive campaign in California. Pacheco has flown to Austin twice in recent months to meet with Bush to discuss issues and seek assurances that, if the governor is the GOP presidential nominee, he will not abandon California.

“He’s got to come to California and I think he realizes that, if he runs,” said Pacheco.

GOP legislators here say that their party’s presidential ticket is crucial to improving their fortunes. In 1994, a nonpresidential year, Gov. Pete Wilson headed the effort and ran a strong reelection race as Republican legislators scored important victories in the Assembly. In 1998, Dan Lungren led the Republicans as gubernatorial nominee and lost by 20 percentage points, dragging down the rest of the ticket, some Republicans contend.

“Our chances of picking up seats are impacted by the top of the ticket because [legislative] campaigns don’t take place in a vacuum,” said Senate GOP Caucus Chairman Jim Brulte of Rancho Cucamonga. “I think that is why you saw 25 members of the Legislature go out very early with a letter urging George W. Bush to run.”

As part of their effort to draft a campaign blueprint, the Republicans are still trying to figure out exactly which voters they lost in November, and why.

They say they are launching an effort to recruit candidates, especially women and Latinos; starting the difficult task of raising campaign funds, an acknowledged uphill battle; and considering a ballot initiative that would take reapportionment out of the hands of the Democrat-controlled Legislature.

GOP consultants say that their party needs to change its image from white, affluent and male to one that is more diverse and flexible. In particular, they are urging legislative leaders to search for qualified women and Latinos--who in recent years have leaned Democratic--and local elected officials who can appeal to all voters.

Brulte and Senate Republican Leader Ross Johnson of Irvine recently began surveying GOP hopefuls for a state Senate seat now held by Patrick Johnston (D-Stockton), who is prohibited by term limits from running again.

“I think Republicans have to do more to recruit good female candidates and good Hispanic candidates. But it is a conscious decision that you have to make and then you go out and put your money where your mouth is,” Brulte said.

Key Issue Is Fund-Raising

Republican fortunes hinge largely on the fund-raising prowess of Brulte, Pacheco and other legislative leaders. The task is especially challenging because Democrats in the Legislature historically have raised more funds, and Republicans have depended on a governor from their own party to help fill their coffers.

“Right now we’re at 32 seats and we don’t have a Republican governor anymore and it’s probably the hardest time anyone can remember in years,” said John Bovee, a fund-raiser for a dozen GOP clients.

“I think the fund-raising is off for most members from . . . 25% to 100%,” he said. “Two or three years ago, Third House [lobbyists’] events were $50,000 or $60,000 events. Now, it’s like $20,000.”

“Given last year’s losses, fund-raising will be more difficult,” Brulte said, adding that it is too early to determine how much tougher it will be and that his own fund-raising is going well.

And Pacheco’s staff said their boss recently raised more than $100,000 at a Sacramento event.

Republicans say that money alone will not guarantee success if their candidates fail to deliver a clear message to voters. Republican officeholders and party officials say that they need to do more than assail President Clinton for his affair with Monica Lewinsky.

“In the last election, we failed to articulate any message,” said Michael Schroeder, chairman of the California Republican Party, which is meeting in Sacramento this weekend. “The only message I heard from Newt Gingrich was Monica Lewinsky.

“Voters couldn’t tell what the message was at the top of our ticket. They assumed there was no message for governor, the Assembly and Congress,” Schroeder said.

Republicans, however, say they did have a program that got “drowned out” by their preoccupation with Clinton and Lewinsky.

Brulte said party leaders are polishing themes that in the past have benefited the GOP, including targeted tax cuts and measures to broaden school choice and make schools safer.

Other Republicans, led by Secretary of State Bill Jones, are considering launching a drive for a ballot initiative to strip the Legislature of its power to redraw district lines and possibly give that authority to the state Supreme Court.

California is required once a decade to redraw legislative and congressional district boundaries, a highly partisan process in which the party in power aligns the districts in its favor.

Republican officeholders fear that after the 2000 census, Democrats--who occupy the governor’s office and control both houses of the Legislature--will create a map leaving the GOP without a fighting chance of becoming a majority in the Legislature or the state’s congressional delegation.

“We better be prepared to fight for a fair plan,” said Ray McNally, a GOP campaign consultant, “or we’ll be sitting on the bench for 10 years.”

Times staff writer Jenifer Warren contributed to this story.